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PTOLEMUS research finds automakers’ vision is in LiDAR for autonomous vehicles
A new study by PTOLEMUS Consulting Group found that most OEMs will use a “cocktail” of technologies, with LiDAR being key, to achieve full vehicle automation. This is instead of relying entirely on radars and cameras for vision, which is an approach championed by companies such as Tesla.
PTOLEMUS predicts that, despite significant decreases, the cost for OEMs to achieve safe operation of full autonomy (SAE level 4) will still exceed $10,000 per vehicle in 2022, making it near-impossible to launch fully autonomous private cars below the $100,000 price tag, and prohibiting mass roll-out.
PTOLEMUS expects robotaxis to be launched in 2021, as their 24/7 driverless operation capability will allow ride hailing operators such as Waymo to recoup the investment. Then, the mass market will see the introduction of L4 tech such as ‘Automated Valet Parking’ and ‘Highway Drive’ in premium models.
Frederic Bruneteau, PTOLEMUS’ Managing Director, stated: “Two years ago, most OEMs were adamant that sensors and AI would suffice. But high profile accidents have pushed the safety imperative, requiring extra layers of redundancy. We predict that a ‘good enough’ approach to automation will never be authorised by regulators worldwide.”
The Autonomous Vehicle Technology & Supplier’s Global Study is the world’s first cross-technology, cross-supplier assessment of the AV industry. It leverages research of 80 tech companies and interviews with more than 20 critical vendors and answers such questions as:
- Which technologies will be used by OEMs?
- Who is the world’s foremost autonomous technology supplier?
- How will AV technologies evolve?
- What will be the cost evolution of key sensors, maps and components?
- When and how will self-driving cars be available?
The study, which can be found here, includes:
- Over 500 pages of analysis
- Assessment of 13 key AV technologies
- 2018-2030 forecasts of revenues and volumes for key sensors and components
- In-depth profiles and independent ranking of 20 key AV tech suppliers
Keywords: ADAS, AI, Autonomous Vehicles, cameras, driverless cars, HA GNSS, HD maps, IMU, LiDARs, machine learning, OEMs, processors, radars, ultrasonic sensors, robotaxis, Tesla, V2X, Waymo.
About PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
PTOLEMUS is the first strategy consulting & research firm entirely focused on connected & autonomous mobility. It assists leading public organisations, technology players, automotive OEMs, insurers and mobility service providers in defining & deploying their mobility strategies.